AGP Executive Report

Belarus–Ukraine War Diplomacy: Volodymyr Zelenskyy published a direct open letter to Vladimir Putin calling for face-to-face talks in a neutral country and proposing a full ceasefire during negotiations, plus “all-for-all” POW exchanges. Belarus Human Rights: Rights groups say Belarus has a systemic labour crackdown lasting over two decades, pointing to long ignored ILO recommendations and the destruction of independent unions after 2020. Belarus Foreign Engagement: Belarus Deputy FM Igor Sekreta met Pakistan’s ambassador in Minsk, including discussion of cooperation in the ILO. Minsk International Cooperation: An Omani delegation visited Minsk agricultural centres and research institutions to study Belarusian food production and veterinary systems, as cooperation in agriculture expands. Sports (Belarus-linked): Belarusian tennis star Aryna Sabalenka said she “just want[s] to quit tennis” after a French Open quarterfinal collapse.

Belarus Foreign Policy: Deputy Foreign Minister Igor Sekreta met Kazakhstan’s ambassador in Minsk to discuss UN and ILO cooperation and mutual support for candidacies, stressing coordination to strengthen the strategic partnership. Belarus Economy: The EBRD downgraded its Belarus growth forecast to 1.1% for 2026 (from 1.3% previously), signaling a slower outlook for the economy. Belarus Immigration Rules: Belarus updated rules for foreign citizens and stateless people staying in the country, via a government resolution signed by Prime Minister Aliaksandr Turchyn. Belarus Security & War Context: A report says Russia is preparing a new phase of hybrid “legal warfare” aimed at weakening democracies, with Belarus described as a potential staging area for Moscow’s operations. Regional Pressure on Belarus: Poland introduced air-traffic restrictions in eastern areas near the Belarus and Ukraine borders, citing state security needs. Belarus Nuclear Waste Plan: Belarus outlined a timetable for an environmental assessment and public consultations this year for a radioactive waste disposal facility, aiming for construction design and commissioning by the end of 2030.

Belarus–Oman Diplomacy & Trade: In Minsk, Belarus’ foreign ministry officials met Oman’s business leadership and agriculture counterparts, with both sides pushing new deals in food security, AI for water/agriculture/soil, and wider investment links. Regional Security Warnings: Belarus’ defense chief Viktor Khrenin said the risk of a Russia-Belarus military event against the West is “extremely high,” with NATO buildup near their borders cited as the trigger for escalation. Ukraine War Spillover: Ukrainian drones struck Saint Petersburg as the “Russian Davos” SPIEF opened, damaging infrastructure and prompting airport disruptions, while Zelensky called it “fair” retaliation. Nuclear Rhetoric: Russia’s deputy foreign minister Sergey Ryabkov renewed nuclear warnings to Western nations, stressing worst-case scenarios tied to threats to Russia’s territorial integrity. Sports (Belarus Spotlight): Aryna Sabalenka said she “just wants to quit tennis” after a shock French Open quarterfinal collapse to Russia’s Diana Shnaider, sending the women’s draw toward a first-time Slam winner. Minsk International Cooperation: Belarus hosted a Venezuela delegation at an inter-party conference in Brest, alongside other Eurasian, Asian, African and Latin American participants.

Belarus Defense & Security: Belarus’ defense chief Viktor Khrenin says the risk of a Russia-Belarus war against the West is “extremely high,” warning it could quickly escalate from regional to global. Ukraine War Spillover: Ukrainian drones struck St. Petersburg’s oil terminal and nearby military sites as the SPIEF “Russia’s Davos” forum opened, forcing airport disruptions and prompting Russia to promise a response. Minsk–NATO Tensions: Latvia says NATO must treat all allies as “frontline” and has legally committed to spending at least 5% of GDP on defense from 2027 ahead of the Türkiye summit. Diplomacy & Trade: Belarus and Oman signed seven MoUs in Minsk covering food security, AI prototypes for agriculture and water, and smart city solutions; Belarus also discussed industrial cooperation with Azerbaijan, including joint ventures. Belarus Courts & Society: A Minsk man was sentenced for refusing military drills on religious grounds. Sports (Belarus): Aryna Sabalenka, Belarus’ top tennis player, lost her French Open quarterfinal to Diana Shnaider and said she “just wants to quit tennis right now.”

Belarus Security Watch: Belarus’ UN envoy in Geneva warned that the threat of aggression against the country is growing, pointing to rising NATO spending and new missile-defense plans in neighboring states. Defense Ties: Belarus Defense Minister Viktor Khrenin held talks in Moscow on military-technical cooperation and visited Russian defense-industry facilities, with a CSTO defense ministers meeting on the agenda. Diplomacy & Food Security: Foreign Minister Maxim Ryzhenkov met FAO chief Qu Dongyu in Minsk, discussing cooperation and the impact of sanctions on Belarus potash exports; separate meetings covered labor ties with Serbia and economic cooperation with North Korea. Agriculture & Industry: Minsk hosted Belagro 2026, Belarus’ biggest agro expo, drawing 570 firms from 12 countries and showcasing new machinery and food-processing tech. Sports & Belarus in the Spotlight: At the French Open, Belarus-linked tennis tensions continued as Aryna Sabalenka advanced; meanwhile, the International Fencing Federation lifted all restrictions on Russian and Belarusian fencers, allowing them to compete under national flags and anthems.

Belarus–Oman Ties: Belarus’ foreign minister Maxim Ryzhenkov met Oman’s agriculture, fisheries and water minister Saoud Hamoud AlHabsi during an Oman delegation visit tied to Belagro 2026, discussing joint projects in baby food and milk drying and ways to expand trade across the region. Allied Cooperation Call: Kremlin says Vladimir Putin spoke by phone with Alexander Lukashenko about developing bilateral “allied cooperation.” Armenia Referendum Row: Armenian PM Nikol Pashinyan said an EU-vs-EAEU referendum is “meaningless” without an official EU application, while EAEU leaders including Lukashenko have urged Armenia to hold one. Sports With Belarus in the spotlight: At Roland Garros, Belarus’ Aryna Sabalenka reached the semis’ lineup as Marta Kostyuk set up a Russia clash; meanwhile the fencing federation lifted restrictions letting Russians and Belarusians compete under national flags and anthems. Security Near Belarus: Reports say the US Army tested counter-drone defenses with British troops in Lithuania, about 30 km from the Belarus border.

Belarus–North Korea Ties: Lukashenko met Russia’s Primorsky Krai governor Oleg Kozhemyako and praised Kim Jong Un, calling him “not a dictator,” while pitching the border region as a trade conduit for Belarus and the DPRK. Minsk Tech & Telecom: MTS Belarus expanded LTE coverage with 100+ additional base stations in May, including upgrades in Brest, Grodno and Minsk. Belarus in Global Sports: Aryna Sabalenka beat Naomi Osaka at the French Open to reach the women’s quarterfinals, setting up a next-round clash with Diana Shnaider. Business & Finance: VTB plans an online “children’s bank” for ages 6–14, with phone transfers, QR payments, mobile payments and a finance chatbot launching in the fall. Regional Security Watch: Ukraine’s Budanov said Kyiv must stay strong against any possible Belarus-based threat, while the latest frontline update reported 178 clashes and 36 Russian assaults near Pokrovsk. EAEU Politics: Lukashenko warned Armenia to avoid repeating Ukraine’s “scenario” as EAEU leaders push for an EU-vs-EAEU referendum. Energy Pressure: Russia is reportedly discussing higher fuel supplies from Belarus to ease domestic demand amid refinery disruptions.

Oman-Belarus Ties: An Omani delegation visited Minsk to see Belarus expertise in food security, dairy production and industry ahead of BELAGRO 2026, touring Slutsk Cheese Factory and Bellakt. Belarus Trade Pressure: Belarus reportedly lost about $0.5m of foreign currency in a month on trade in goods, with Belstat data showing a worsening April balance. Ukraine-Related Belarus Security: Belarusian officials again reacted to Kyiv’s “500 targets” claims, with Lukashenko dismissing them as “idle chatter” and warning Minsk has its own targets if threatened. EAEU & AI: EAEU leaders meeting in Astana adopted a joint statement on responsible AI development, framing advanced tech as a driver for Eurasian integration. Armenia EAEU vs EU Row: EAEU states urged Armenia to hold a referendum on EU vs EAEU; Armenia’s PM Pashinyan called the referendum “unreasonable” until EU membership is formally applied for or close. Diplomatic Friction: Russia recalled its ambassador to Armenia for consultations amid Armenia’s EU pivot and EAEU pressure.

Belarus-Ukraine Tensions: Lukashenko hit back at Ukraine’s “500 targets” warning, saying Minsk has “500 targets” too and hinting at a “very serious” one with precise coordinates near Belarus. Ukraine Strikes Russia’s Energy: Kyiv said drones hit the Saratov oil refinery and the Lazarevo pumping station, plus a fuel depot in Rostov, while denying a claim that a drone struck the Zaporizhzhia nuclear plant; the IAEA said it’s “seriously concerned” about a reported turbine-building hit. NATO/Baltics Drone Defense: The U.S. Army ran Project Flytrap 5.0 in Lithuania near the Belarus border to test anti-drone tactics with UK forces, as the Baltics expand layered defenses and Estonia installs stationary drone-detection systems. Diplomacy & War Pace: Zelenskyy urged the U.S. to finalize a drone deal and said Russia is using drones to pressure NATO and test air defenses, while also calling for progress on peace talks before winter.

Ukraine–Russia Energy Strikes: Kyiv says drones hit the Saratov oil refinery and a Lazarevo pumping station in Russia’s Kirov region, while Russian officials report drone interceptions and fires across multiple areas. Belarus–Ukraine Tensions: Lukashenko dismissed Kyiv’s claim of “500 targets” in Belarus, saying Minsk has its own “very serious” target with coordinates and calling the Ukrainian warning “empty talk.” Oreshnik/Belarus Launchpad Claims: Belarusian railway monitoring groups say a Russian military train delivered Oreshnik-linked equipment to the former Krychau-6 area in late 2025, raising fresh fears about a new offensive posture near NATO’s edge. Regional Security in the Baltics: Estonia is expanding anti-drone monitoring along its border with Russia, while Lithuania warns the Baltic states could be next. EAEU Politics—Armenia Pressure: Lukashenko urges Armenia to avoid a “Ukrainian scenario” as EAEU leaders push for an Armenia referendum on EU vs bloc membership. Belarus Trade & Diplomacy: Oman will take part in Belagro 2026 in Minsk, boosting agricultural and water-sector cooperation.

Belarus-EU Tensions via Armenia: Lukashenko says EAEU members don’t want Armenia to leave but will respect Yerevan’s choice, after EAEU leaders backed a referendum on whether Armenia picks the EU or stays in the bloc. Diplomatic Pressure: Russia summoned its ambassador to Armenia for consultations over Armenia’s EU pivot, warning it could undermine EAEU cooperation. Sanctions Coordination: Ukraine signed decrees aligning sanctions with the EU’s 20th package, adding new Russian, Belarus-linked and other companies and individuals tied to defense, drones and energy. Ukraine War Signals: Zelensky warned of a possible major Russian attack tonight or tomorrow, involving drones, cruise and ballistic missiles. NATO vs Russia Rhetoric: NATO chief Mark Rutte reiterated support for Ukraine as Russian officials warned Europe may be moving toward direct confrontation. Belarus in the Drone Debate: Ukraine claims Russian “Oreshnik” missile components include Russian and Belarusian parts, and Ukraine says it has identified hundreds of potential targets in Belarus if escalation follows. Belarus-Related Fact Check: A Belarusian claim that the U.S. manipulated GDP to block China was rated mostly false. Sports (Belarus Mention): Chess esports event ENC 2026 lists Belarus’ Denis Lazavik among invitees, while Nihal Sarin secured direct qualification.

Belarus-EU diplomacy: Alexander Lukashenko told reporters he urged French President Emmanuel Macron to push for direct EU-Russia talks, even proposing a “man-to-man” meeting in Minsk with Vladimir Putin. Armenia pressure via EAEU: At an EAEU summit in Astana, leaders including Lukashenko backed a referendum in Armenia on EU membership vs staying in the Eurasian Economic Union, warning of “significant risks” and preparing a December report on possible suspension. EAEU integration push: The bloc’s leaders also highlighted deeper digital and AI cooperation, with responsible AI principles adopted and trade targets discussed. Ukraine war spillover: Russia’s drones struck a Romanian apartment building near the Ukrainian border, injuring civilians; NATO and Romania condemned the escalation. Regional security: Latvia began installing “dragon’s teeth” anti-tank barriers along the border with Russia, while German troops arrived in Lithuania for major NATO exercises. Belarus foreign ties: Belarus and Venezuela discussed political cooperation and industrial/trade links during Shestakov’s visit to Havana.

EAEU Summit in Astana: Putin, Lukashenko and other EAEU leaders met in Astana to discuss Armenia’s EU path, adopting a joint statement urging Yerevan to hold a nationwide referendum on joining the EU or staying in the EAEU, warning of “significant risks” to EAEU economic security and promising a December 2026 report on consequences of suspending the EAEU treaty for Armenia. Belarus in the bloc’s agenda: The summit also highlighted Lukashenko’s push for faster EAEU integration and a common financial market, while Kazakhstan’s Tokayev said intra-EAEU trade is set to top $100B in 2026. AI push across the union: At the Eurasian Economic Forum, leaders and officials stressed responsible AI use and practical adoption in customs, logistics, industry and public services. Belarus-linked security concern: Ukraine’s defense officials said they see no readiness for a major attack from Belarus “tomorrow,” but warned activity could be used to draw troops or launch drones/missiles. Sport update with Belarus angle: The IIHF reinstated Belarus for several 2026-27 youth and women’s tournaments, while Russia’s eligibility will be decided event-by-event.

Border Fortifications: Ukraine says it’s reinforcing the full 1,085-kilometer border with Belarus, with engineering works on the line and deeper defenses behind it, while warning Russia could shift troops at any time even if no buildup is currently seen. EAEU Diplomacy: Putin’s Kazakhstan trip continues with a Supreme Eurasian Economic Council meeting, including talks with Lukashenko, as Armenia’s Pashinyan again skips EAEU events amid election campaigning. Belarus in the Spotlight: Ukraine claims components made at a Belarusian factory were found inside Russia’s “Oreshnik” missile used in the May 24 strikes, as Kyiv presents the issue to European ambassadors. Sports & Sanctions: Belarus is reinstated for IIHF tournaments next season, while Lithuania is considering a legal ban on Russians and Belarusians in sports and scientific events. Culture & Community: Belarus opposition leader Tsikhanouskaya in Kyiv hands medals to Belarusian volunteers fighting with Ukraine, saying their contribution matters for a free Belarus too.

Belarus–Cuba Diplomacy: Deputy Foreign Minister Evgeny Shestakov visited Havana, discussing political cooperation, trade and economic ties, and a cultural program marking 35 years of Belarus–Cuba diplomatic relations. Ukraine War & Belarus Risk: Ukraine’s border guard says there’s no current buildup of Russian troops in Belarus, but warns Minsk could later allow redeployments to prepared bases. Nuclear Exercises Claim: Belarus’ foreign ministry says joint Russian-Belarus nuclear drills comply with the NPT and are “defensive,” framing them as an analogue to NATO’s joint nuclear missions. Sanctions Pressure & Tech Links: Ukraine’s president’s office showed European ambassadors missile/drone parts used in the May 24 attack, including boards from the Oreshnik system with Belarusian and Russian components made between 2004–2014; officials call for tighter controls on electronics reaching Russia. Weather Disruptions: Belarus issued an orange storm warning for May 29 as strong winds hit; emergency services reported 229 cases of fallen trees and damage across multiple regions. Economy & Living Standards: Belstat reports household disposable resources rose to 2,984.9 rubles per month in Q1 2026, with higher cash expenditures. Culture Abroad: Belarus’ “Free Belarus Salon” opens at the Warsaw International Book Fair with more than 25 events, including appearances by Ales Bialiatski and other authors.

Border Tensions & Power Cuts: Belarus reported squally winds disrupting electricity in 500+ settlements, with crews working across Minsk, Vitsyebsk, Mahiliou and Hrodna after fallen trees damaged lines. Ukraine War Spillover: Ukraine says it has identified 500 potential targets in Belarus if Lukashenko joins Russia’s war, while Belarus and Ukraine trade accusations over drone incidents near the border. Diplomacy & Prisoners: Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya met Ukraine’s POW Coordination Headquarters to discuss the fate of Belarusian volunteers and possible exchanges of prisoners held by Russia and Belarus. EU-Linked Pressure on Minsk’s Neighborhood: Russia warned Armenia it could suspend gas, oil products and diamond supplies if Yerevan continues EU accession—another sign of how EU alignment is being met with economic threats. Regional Security Signals: Latvia and the Netherlands agreed to expand drone testing and training cooperation at the “Sēlija” range, as Baltic states push to strengthen anti-drone defenses along the Russia-Belarus border. Business & Education Links: Belarusian firms and universities showcased cooperation potential in Ashgabat, with B2B meetings focused on industrial and tech partnerships.